Downturn, Recession, or Collapse?

The economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 -- and, for that matter, probably well beyond. Source = Warren Buffett, Republican billionaire investor

The turbulence is actually more severe than during the Great Depression, comparing the current situation to the demise of the Soviet Union. Source = George Soros, Democrat billionaire investor

The global economy may be deteriorating even more precipitously than it did during the Great Depression. Source = Paul Volker, former Federal Reserve Chair under Democrat President Carter and under Republican President Reagan, and current economic advisor to President Obama

The late Rudi Dornbsuch of MIT knew a huge amount about financial crisis, and could distill a lifetime of study and involvement in collapses succinctly: “it always takes longer than you think; but when it happens, it always happens faster than you can imagine.” Source

BREAKING NEWS: Factory output is collapsing at the fastest pace everywhere. The figures for the most recent month available are, year-on-year: Taiwan (-43pc), Ukraine (-34pc), Japan (-30pc), Singapore (-29pc), Hungary (-23pc), Sweden (-20pc), Korea (-19pc), Turkey (-18pc), Russia (-16pc), Spain (-15pc), Poland (-15pc), Brazil (-15pc), Italy (-14pc), Germany (-12pc), France (-11pc), US (-10pc) and Britain (-9pc). Norway sails blissfully on (+4pc). What do they drink up there?

This terrifying fall has been concentrated in the last five months. The job slaughter has barely begun. Social mayhem comes with a 12-month lag. By comparison, industrial output in core-Europe fell 2.8pc in 1930, 5.1pc in 1931 and 3.9pc in 1932, according to RBS.

Stephen Lewis, from Monument Securities, says we have been lulled into a false sense of security by the lack of "soup kitchens". The visual cues from Steinbeck's America are missing. "The temptation for investors is to see this as just another recession, over by the end of the year. But this is not a normal cycle. It is a cataclysmic structural breakdown," he said. Source

China consumer markets are shrinking

China Taxes Reveal Spending Slowdown, Goldman Says

By Chua Kong Ho and Paul Panckhurst

Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- China investors should be “defensively positioned” as a decline in the nation’s tax receipts signals a steeper slowdown in spending than retail sales figures show, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

“Tax data show much sharper deceleration in income and consumption in the past few months than suggested by official retail sales or income growth figures,” Goldman Sachs analysts Joshua Lu, Caroline Li and Fiona Lau wrote in a note today.

Value-added tax has “de-linked sharply” from retail sales figures, the analysts wrote. VAT rose 1 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, while retail sales gained 21 percent, according to the note.

China is trying to boost domestic spending to shore up its economy as recessions in the U.S. and Europe smother demand for its exports. The nation’s growth has slowed for six straight quarters, while outbound shipments slumped 17.5 percent in January, the most in almost 13 years, customs bureau data showed this month.

Growth in China’s individual income-tax receipts “slowed down significantly” in the second half and shrank in December and January, the Goldman Sachs analysts wrote. This compares with nominal wage growth of 21 percent in the third quarter, the report said.

“We think the government’s fiscal stimulus package announced so far may help create jobs, but may not necessarily help boost wages which, in our view, is the key driver of consumption growth,” the note said. “As such we are not hopeful that China’s consumption slowdown will bottom out soon.”

Thousands queue at New York job fair

Published: February 24 2009 21:49

Throngs of unemployed New Yorkers braved sub-freezing temperatures on Tuesday in hopes of finding new work amid rising job cuts.

Wrapping around block of the Sheraton New York Hotel for hours, more than 5,000 people - many in business attire - waited in single-file lines for a chance to submit resumes and chat briefly with recruiters. There were 41 companies hiring, according to Women for Hire, who sponsored the job fair and allowed men to attend for the first time, with a total of 1,000 openings to be filled. At the last such event in November just 1,500 people attended.

The US economy: Crash the plane to steal the cargo

An airline as metaphor for the crash of the US economy: money is fuel in an airplane, financial institutions are fuel lines, and macro-economic statistics are the gauges.

February 8, 2009

We're in the middle of an unfolding economic disaster. Why are we so calm? Lol! Our captain reassures us that it's all under control. He asks everyone to remain calm. Our captain has told us, "we're experiencing a little difficulty up here, but nothing to worry about." Who are we going to believe, our own feelings or the captain? We all know what any good captain has to do about any passengers who persist in upsetting the other passengers--quiet the troublemakers. So we remain calm.

Once upon a time . . .

An airline pilot discovers that the plane's main tanks have run out of fuel. The captain switches over to emergency reserves. He knows the plane won't make it to a safe airport. They'll have to ditch in a field.

The captain doesn't want to panic the passengers, so he says, "we're experiencing a little difficulty up here, but nothing to worry about." He shuts down all but one engine to conserve fuel. He tells his co-pilots that they are not to blame because "no one could have predicted it."

When the reserve tanks are empty the last engine shuts down. The plane keeps flying, but in a steep descent. The passengers realize something is terribly wrong, but what could they do anyway?

The crew prepares for an emergency crash landing. As they get close to the ground the captain wishes he could use the engines for 1 minute--to make a safer, more controlled emergency landing. But alas, too late, he realizes he used up all the reserves, the engines can't be used during the final approach. The emergency landing is much rougher because of it.

No one applauds the landing, many people are injured. Passengers use emergency exits and leave the plane. Outside everyone sees the plane is damaged--beyond the point of ever being flown again. The captain tells everyone to remain calm and that help will arrive soon.

Soon trucks arrive. Men from inside the trucks threaten the people with guns. They unload the plane's cargo and drive away.

Years later, after the crash, investigators prove the fuel lines and gauges were tampered with so the plane would crash and the cargo could be stolen. The thieves were never identified--despite the fact that many similar crashes all occurred worldwide at about the same time.

---------------

Let me ask an outrageous question: Is this economic crash intentional and planned--"in order to steal the cargo"? If so, who are "they" and "how they are doing it"? Answer: it's the same old financial techniques used by IMF/World Bank to take-over and control lesser developed countries in order to steal their assets. It's a tried and proven method for extracting maximum resources from a country. The techniques are now being used against the developed world--corruption so huge that it's beyond belief. Lol! Maybe even economic coup d'état?

Never fear, with large enough bailouts, "It is as if there has been a silent coup d'état - instead of the taxpayers owning the banks, the banks now seem to own the taxpayers. They have been given access to the present and future earnings of the public, which will plug their mind-blowing losses." http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3358846/the-banks-reverse-takeover-of-britain.thtml

If you have no idea what I'm talking about please read this (and hundreds of other posts like it):

• http://www.dunwalke.com/gideon/privatization030402.html
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confessions_of_an_Economic_Hit_Man
• http://counterpunch.org/hudson02172009.html

"This is your captain speaking, everyone remain calm, everything is under control. "

Cheers